As we saw in the previous post, DeKalb has had a difficult time coming to terms with population loss since 2007. It’s not difficult to see why: a “grow or die” mentality, a downtown beautification plan at stake, an $88.5 million high school to justify, and so forth.

But before we go any further, let’s place this story of denial into a budget context. Management put raises for themselves into the FY2012 budget, and managed to budget us a nice $1.8* million surplus as well — a surplus that will be used for additional raises that accompany new labor contracts, because pay hikes for union workers are not part of the budget until they are approved by council.

The budget surplus is roughly equal to an anticipated 11.91%* increase in sales tax revenues plus the city’s share of the first year of TIF surplus.

The trouble is, the surplus is only a guess. They’ve been wrong before — and in the past few years, often very wrong. Read the rest of this entry